Afghans Debate Future US Presence

Despite the vocal demands often heard for international troops to leave Afghanistan as soon as possible, some people interviewed by IWPR are not opposed to the idea of a lasting United States military presence in their country, seeing this as the lesser of two evils.

Washington has signalled that its combat mission in Afghanistan is likely to end in 2014, but there has also been talk of maintaining a presence well beyond that date to offer training and support to the national army.

According to the New York Times, General David Petraeus, the commander of international forces in Afghanistan , told the Senate Armed Services Committee in mid-March that it was important for the US to “stay engaged in a region in which we have such vital interests”.

“I think the concept of joint basing, the concept of providing enablers for Afghan operations and so forth — frankly, similar to what we have done in Iraq since the mission changed there — would also be appropriate in Afghanistan,” he said.

President Hamid Karzai recently said he had discussed the matter with US officials, emphasising that Kabul rather than Washington would decide the terms of such a military presence.

In Afghanistan, the subject is divisive, with some harbouring a deep-seated hostility to any foreign troop presence, and others conceding that the Karzai government is not yet ready to defend the country on its own.

“A lasting defence treaty between Afghanistan and the US, providing for the creation of permanent military bases, is the only way of achieving security and national sovereignty,” Jawad, a 29-year-old journalist in the capital Kabul said.

Supporters of a US presence say that if the troops departed prematurely, it would leave the country vulnerable to threats both from local warlords and from external players like Pakistan and Iran that might move in and seek to fill the vacuum.

“Afghanistan faces great conspiracies,” Kabul resident Sher Mohammad said. “Pakistan and Iran threaten us in conjunction with the Taleban and al-Qaeda. We cannot get eliminate these conspiracies in the short term, so I believe that establishing permanent US bases would be to our advantage.”

Nasrullah Stanekzai, a political analyst and law lecturer at Kabul university, agreed that American forces would deter Iran and Pakistan from interfering, but he added the proviso that the Afghan people must be consulted about this.

“There are no legal obstacles to the creation of US bases in Afghanistan,” he said. “Such an agreement could be signed by the two countries once parliament and a loya jirga [consultative assembly] have ruled on it. It would also have to be put to the United Nations Security Council.”

Daud Sultanzoi, an ex-air force officer who lost his parliamentary seat in last year’s election, said that while a continuing US military presence would fend off direct interference by neighbours, it might also encourage them to sponsor a continuing insurgency focused on this “foreign presence”.

Other risks, he said, were that the Afghan state would cede control over foreign policy and thus lose its national sovereignty; and that the US presence would simply prop up an Afghan administration he accuses of corruption and links to organised crime.

Political scientist Fazlorrahman Oria agreed that a US presence would fuel the insurgency.

“I believe that once such bases have been established, the enemies of the US will not remain silent,” he said. “They will create problems for the Americans one way or another, undermining the prospects for peace ever after.”

While some ordinary Afghans interviewed for this report, like Sher Mohammad, viewed interfering neighbours and the Taleban as the greater threat, others remained deeply hostile to any foreign troop presence in their country.

“If the US stays on in our country and establishes permanent bases, the insurgent campaign against it will increase, because the people of Afghanistan have defended their freedom and religion by every possible means, and they’ll continue to do so in the future,” Kabul shopkeeper Sayed Asghar said.

Khan Mohammad Danishju is an IWPR-trained reporter in Kabul.